[SMM monthly Outlook] Nickel Price wide range volatility pattern still pays attention to the key indicators of Nickel Bean inventory

Looking back on the overall pattern of nickel prices rising first and then suppressing and then fluctuating in the first quarter of this year, from the end of last year to February 22, Shanghai nickel continued to rise. New energy is expected to push the nickel price up to 149350 yuan / ton on February 22, once approaching the 150000 mark, reaching a new high since the opening of the Shanghai nickel market, but then, due to the announcement of the Qingshan high ice nickel project, the new energy valuation was cut, and Shanghai nickel fell sharply for two days in a row. Low down near 118000 tons, has stabilized since March 10, long and empty alternately dominated the operation, basically fluctuated in the upper line of 120000, the position for three weeks in a row, the first quarter of a brilliant start, weak ending.

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In terms of inventories, data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) show that Lenny inventories have continued to fluctuate at high levels since March, with the latest inventory level of 260244 tons, which has remained relatively high in the past three years. On the domestic side, data released in the previous period showed that Shanghai nickel inventories stopped falling steadily, with weekly inventories rising 1.22% to 10692 tons in the week of March 26. The exchange's nickel inventories had previously fallen as low as 10563 tonnes, a recent two-year low.

LME nickel inventory

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On the last trading day in March, Shanghai Nickel showed a Dayin line, which fell to 119920 yuan / ton at one time, but then recovered slightly. After entering April, Shanghai Nickel remained stable at the front line above 120000. On the first day of the month, the spot market was still light, and there was almost no stock gap for users near the holiday, and the trading situation in the morning market was not as good as yesterday. In terms of stainless steel, the trend in the first quarter is the same as that of Shanghai Nickel. Near the end of March, the price of stainless steel has risen, but it has fallen again recently. Entering the first day of April, approaching the Ching Ming Festival holiday, the downstream of non-urgent purchase is mainly wait-and-see, and the market transaction atmosphere is slightly weak.

At present, the spot market of pure nickel has limited stimulation to the downstream under the condition that the absolute price continues to run sideways, and only the rigid demand consumption has stagnated the digestion of inventory; the nickel iron holder has made concessions and delivered goods, the transaction within the week is more concentrated, and the market activity returns again, the falling price trend has not changed. Stainless steel trading last week is better than the previous period, steel mills have a strong price mentality, while the spot market volume is not much, so that spot prices are relatively strong, prices will continue to strengthen will need to rely on consumption, although the performance is stable and strong, but the boost to nickel prices is limited; battery-grade nickel sulfate transactions are light, downstream wait-and-see mood is strong, autolysis capacity increases, supply tends to be relaxed, the seller's price-raising mentality is difficult to sustain; From the comprehensive performance, the weak pattern of the industrial chain continues, and the absence of each sub-industrial chain is clearly positive.

At present, from a fundamental point of view, the driving force of nickel futures rise is not strong, short-term may still maintain range shock operation, the gap above is large, nickel bean inventory is the key indicator of nickel price rise, continuous removal of storage or will drive nickel price upward to fill the gap. Shanghai nickel main contract price is expected to run at 118000 to 125000 yuan / ton.